{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "study": "Carrowmont Mortgage Affordability Monitor",
  "geography": "United States",
  "published": "2026-10-23",
  "retrieved": "2026-10-23",
  "sources": {
    "mortgage_rate": {
      "name": "Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS)",
      "url": "https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms",
      "current_period": "2026-10-22",
      "current_30yr_fixed_pct": 7.32,
      "year_ago_period": "2025-10-23",
      "year_ago_30yr_fixed_pct": 6.19
    },
    "home_price": {
      "name": "U.S. Census Bureau / HUD New Residential Sales",
      "url": "https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/current/index.html",
      "period": "2026-08",
      "median_new_home_price_usd": 393700,
      "series_access_note": "Recent revised monthly values are consistent with the Census/HUD MSPNHSUS series as distributed by FRED."
    },
    "household_income": {
      "name": "U.S. Census Bureau, Income in the United States: 2025",
      "url": "https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2026/demo/p60-289.html",
      "period": "2025",
      "median_household_income_usd": 87460
    }
  },
  "assumptions": {
    "amortization_years": 30,
    "down_payment_pct": 20,
    "payment_scope": "Principal and interest only",
    "excluded_costs": [
      "property tax",
      "homeowners insurance",
      "mortgage insurance",
      "HOA/strata charges",
      "closing costs",
      "maintenance",
      "lender fees"
    ]
  },
  "headline_metrics": {
    "current_30yr_fixed_pct": 7.32,
    "year_ago_30yr_fixed_pct": 6.19,
    "reference_400k_current_monthly_pi_usd": 2747.72,
    "reference_400k_year_ago_monthly_pi_usd": 2447.28,
    "reference_400k_monthly_change_usd": 300.44,
    "reference_400k_payment_change_pct": 12.28,
    "median_new_home_price_usd": 393700,
    "median_new_home_20pct_down_loan_usd": 314960.0,
    "median_new_home_current_monthly_pi_usd": 2163.56,
    "median_household_income_usd": 87460,
    "pi_share_of_gross_median_monthly_income_pct": 29.69
  },
  "rate_snapshots": [
    {
      "date": "2025-10-23",
      "rate_pct": 6.19
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-11-26",
      "rate_pct": 6.23
    },
    {
      "date": "2025-12-31",
      "rate_pct": 6.15
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-01-29",
      "rate_pct": 6.1
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-02-26",
      "rate_pct": 5.98
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-03-26",
      "rate_pct": 6.38
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-30",
      "rate_pct": 6.3
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-05-28",
      "rate_pct": 6.53
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-25",
      "rate_pct": 6.49
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-30",
      "rate_pct": 6.66
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-27",
      "rate_pct": 6.66
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-24",
      "rate_pct": 7.03
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-10-22",
      "rate_pct": 7.32
    }
  ],
  "median_new_home_prices": [
    {
      "period": "2025-09",
      "median_price_usd": 416800
    },
    {
      "period": "2025-10",
      "median_price_usd": 404200
    },
    {
      "period": "2025-11",
      "median_price_usd": 402500
    },
    {
      "period": "2025-12",
      "median_price_usd": 429100
    },
    {
      "period": "2026-01",
      "median_price_usd": 416200
    },
    {
      "period": "2026-02",
      "median_price_usd": 412000
    },
    {
      "period": "2026-03",
      "median_price_usd": 398700
    },
    {
      "period": "2026-04",
      "median_price_usd": 415700
    },
    {
      "period": "2026-05",
      "median_price_usd": 414300
    },
    {
      "period": "2026-06",
      "median_price_usd": 406400
    },
    {
      "period": "2026-07",
      "median_price_usd": 392200
    },
    {
      "period": "2026-08",
      "median_price_usd": 393700
    }
  ],
  "payment_sensitivity": [
    {
      "loan_usd": 200000,
      "scenario": "Current - 1 pp",
      "rate_pct": 6.32,
      "monthly_pi_usd": 1240.55
    },
    {
      "loan_usd": 200000,
      "scenario": "Current",
      "rate_pct": 7.32,
      "monthly_pi_usd": 1373.86
    },
    {
      "loan_usd": 200000,
      "scenario": "Current + 1 pp",
      "rate_pct": 8.32,
      "monthly_pi_usd": 1512.39
    },
    {
      "loan_usd": 300000,
      "scenario": "Current - 1 pp",
      "rate_pct": 6.32,
      "monthly_pi_usd": 1860.83
    },
    {
      "loan_usd": 300000,
      "scenario": "Current",
      "rate_pct": 7.32,
      "monthly_pi_usd": 2060.79
    },
    {
      "loan_usd": 300000,
      "scenario": "Current + 1 pp",
      "rate_pct": 8.32,
      "monthly_pi_usd": 2268.58
    },
    {
      "loan_usd": 400000,
      "scenario": "Current - 1 pp",
      "rate_pct": 6.32,
      "monthly_pi_usd": 2481.11
    },
    {
      "loan_usd": 400000,
      "scenario": "Current",
      "rate_pct": 7.32,
      "monthly_pi_usd": 2747.72
    },
    {
      "loan_usd": 400000,
      "scenario": "Current + 1 pp",
      "rate_pct": 8.32,
      "monthly_pi_usd": 3024.77
    },
    {
      "loan_usd": 500000,
      "scenario": "Current - 1 pp",
      "rate_pct": 6.32,
      "monthly_pi_usd": 3101.39
    },
    {
      "loan_usd": 500000,
      "scenario": "Current",
      "rate_pct": 7.32,
      "monthly_pi_usd": 3434.65
    },
    {
      "loan_usd": 500000,
      "scenario": "Current + 1 pp",
      "rate_pct": 8.32,
      "monthly_pi_usd": 3780.97
    },
    {
      "loan_usd": 750000,
      "scenario": "Current - 1 pp",
      "rate_pct": 6.32,
      "monthly_pi_usd": 4652.08
    },
    {
      "loan_usd": 750000,
      "scenario": "Current",
      "rate_pct": 7.32,
      "monthly_pi_usd": 5151.98
    },
    {
      "loan_usd": 750000,
      "scenario": "Current + 1 pp",
      "rate_pct": 8.32,
      "monthly_pi_usd": 5671.45
    }
  ]
}